A Reflection on Italy’s GDP Trend and Governments Over the Years

I do not claim to draw any conclusions because I do not believe I have the right expertise to carry out an in-depth analysis on the subject, but in my opinion each of us can draw our own conclusions by analyzing the changes in per capita GDP over the years and comparing them with the legislatures of the same period that I list below. Avoiding personal biases often driven by ideology or even political sympathies, everyone can ask the right questions.

Change in per capita GDP since 2001

Per capita GDP trend in Italy, France, Germany and Spain – Years 2008-2016 quarterly data

Put it this way: comparing the various charts, I noticed a correlation between their trends over the years in which it becomes clear that, in fact, our governments have in some way followed or been subjected to the European market, keeping Italy, however, always below the growth levels of our neighboring countries. The first reflection, therefore, is that our leadership in general is not able to influence matters to such an extent as to change the state of the country by trying to make it move against the trend, nor are we able to recover the GAP with appropriate interventions.

The second reflection is instead linked to the period from 2011 to 2013 (XVI Legislature from 29 April 2008 to 23 December 2012) in which both Italy and Spain showed a negative countertrend (regression) when compared with that of France and Germany. These data make me reflect and allow me to judge not so much the negative trend (for which I am not able to assess the causes) but the politics of those years which objectively were unable to adapt and/or withstand the pressures of that particular period. (let us remember the war in Libya, spreads at historic highs, etc.)

I add, finally, that a further critical assessment must also be made of the most recent period, 2013 to today: the XVII Legislature (installed on 15 March 2013), during which a slight growth is recorded, but if compared with that of Spain, which instead recovered the 2008 GAP, it can be stated without a shadow of a doubt that in Italy a defensive or ineffective policy was pursued.

In short, my view is that we have been stuck since as far back as 2008

I’ll leave you to draw your own conclusions.

XVII Legislature (from 15 March 2013)
General elections 24 and 25 February 2013:

• Gentiloni government (from 12 December 2016)
• Renzi government (from 22 February 2014 to 12 December 2016)
• Letta government (from 28 April 2013 to 21 February 2014)

XVI Legislature (from 29 April 2008 to 23 December 2012)
General elections 13 and 14 April 2008:

• Monti government (from 16 November 2011 to 27 April 2013)
• Berlusconi IV government (from 8 May 2008 to 16 November 2011)

XV Legislature (28 April 2006 – 6 February 2008)
General elections 9 and 10 April 2006:

• Prodi II government (from 17 May 2006 to 6 May 2008)

XIV Legislature (30 May 2001 – 27 April 2006)
General elections on 13 May 2001:

• Berlusconi III government (from 23 April 2005 to 17 May 2006)
• Berlusconi II government (from 11 June 2001 to 23 April 2005)

XIII Legislature (9 May 1996 – 9 March 2001)
General elections on 21 April 1996:

• Amato II government
• D’Alema II government
• D’Alema government
• Prodi government